Golden Globes 2022: Predictions and Award Show Updates

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announced today that the Golden Globes awards show won’t have a livestream and will be announced via the official Globes Twitter account (lmao). This renders the lone aspect of the Globes’ popularity virtually useless. The lack of speeches or general fanfare diminishes what makes the Globes a fixture and shouldn’t be taken too seriously in 2022. 

(Bolded indicates predicted winner)

My Pick indicates my prefered winners

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Belfast

CODA

Dune

King Richard

The Power of the Dog

Notes: The prestige films win this category (or Bohemian Rhapsody that *wasn’t* considered a Musical for some reason). Belfast certainly feels like a contender, but I can’t see it winning anywhere. It’s either going to be beloved or fall flat. CODA could be a surprise contender as well with a quickly rising campaign. Nonetheless, The Power of the Dog is a different beast in this race and will have the advantage here. 

My Pick: The Power of the Dog

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Cyrano

Don’t Look Up

Licorice Pizza

Tick, Tick… Boom!

West Side Story

Notes: West Side Story or Licorice Pizza. For now, Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite despite overwhelmingly positive notes for Spielberg’s West Side Story. Only one Musical has won since 2016 (La La Land).

My Pick: Licorice Pizza

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

Compartment No. 6 (Finland, Russia, Germany)

Drive My Car (Japan)

The Hand of God (Italy)

A Hero (France, Iran)

Parallel Mothers (Spain)

Notes: Unfortunately, the slow roll-out of these films means I’ve only seen one of them so far (The Hand of God). Hopefully, in the next month or two that will change (seeing A Hero and Parallel Mothers today). Regardless, the Oscar frontrunner wins a lot here, even if it’s a smaller profile films like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car

Best Director – Motion Picture

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Notes: My No Guts No Glory Globes prediction is Denis Villeneuve in Director. It boils down to Globes loving innovative, large scale storytelling in this category. Dune fits the profile, and I don’t believe there’s a consensus between Campion, Spielberg and Branagh.

My Pick: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

Licorice Pizza

Belfast

The Power of the Dog

Don’t Look Up

Being the Ricardos

Notes: The Globes haven’t gone for a slower art piece similar to The Power of the Dog since Her in 2014. Licorice Pizza, a Paul Thomas Anderson film, has the same appeal as the 2020 winner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s brash and laid-back. However, Jane Campion is still the frontrunner in adapted screenplay at the Oscars.

My Pick: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Lady Gaga, House of Gucci

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Notes: Surprisingly, the prestige films have had greater success in this category than the male counterparts. This makes me feel like Kristen Stewart has a chance to win, but the internalized and metaphysical performance has me second-guessing her chances. If she wins here, I’m certain she’ll win the Oscar.

My Pick: Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Mahershala Ali, Swan Song

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Notes: The Globes prefer transformative performances in this category – Leo DiCaprio in The Revenant, or Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. Roles where the person fades and the imitation presides. Will Smith, on top of having an unbelievably strong narrative, gives a transformative performance. 

My Pick: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Marion Cotillard, Annette

Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up

Emma Stone, Cruella

Rachel Zegler, West Side Story

Notes: There’s two rules in this category at the Globes: 1, showy performances win awards and 2, don’t bet against Jennifer Lawrence (three wins in musical/comedy since 2013). However, she’s not nearly as prominent as potential Best Feature winner Alana Haim

My Personal Pick: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up

Peter Dinklage, Cyrano

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!

Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Anthony Ramos, In the Heights

Notes: Musical leads have won four of the last five and five out of the last 10 Globes in this category. Andrew Garfield has the highest profile and biggest impact role outside of arguably Peter Dinklage. It could be the start of his Oscar run. 

My Pick: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Caitríona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

Notes: The loudest, most noticeable supporting performances get the win here. Many of these performances are internalized, while DeBose plays in a vibrant musical with her at the center in huge set pieces.

My Pick: Ruth Negga, Passing

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar

Jamie Dornan, Belfast

Ciarán Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Notes: Troy Kotsur’s narrative is strong – strong enough to win a Golden Globe and possibly an Oscar. It feels 50/50 between Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Belfast is strong but likely vote splitting between the two. 

My pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Best Motion Picture – Animated

Encanto

Flee

Luca

My Sunny Maad

Raya and the Last Dragon

Notes: Pixar has won six of the last 11 years and Disney has won twice. No film outside the name brand studios has a win

My pick (with the qualification of not seeing Flee yet): Luca

Best Original Score – Motion Picture

The French Dispatch

Encanto

The Power of the Dog

Parallel Mothers

Dune

Notes: Hans Zimmer has five nominations since 2010 and no wins. Many previous nominees won on their third or fourth score.

My Pick: Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

King Richard

Encanto

Belfast

Respect

No Time to Die

Notes: Since 2013, Bond films have two wins and No Time To Die might be the strongest among them. The high profile names often win in this category. My pick: No Time to Die


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