The Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) announced today that the Golden Globes awards show won’t have a livestream and will be announced via the official Globes Twitter account (lmao). This renders the lone aspect of the Globes’ popularity virtually useless. The lack of speeches or general fanfare diminishes what makes the Globes a fixture and shouldn’t be taken too seriously in 2022.
(Bolded indicates predicted winner)
My Pick indicates my prefered winners
Best Motion Picture – Drama
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Notes: The prestige films win this category (or Bohemian Rhapsody that *wasn’t* considered a Musical for some reason). Belfast certainly feels like a contender, but I can’t see it winning anywhere. It’s either going to be beloved or fall flat. CODA could be a surprise contender as well with a quickly rising campaign. Nonetheless, The Power of the Dog is a different beast in this race and will have the advantage here.
My Pick: The Power of the Dog
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Cyrano
Don’t Look Up
Licorice Pizza
Tick, Tick… Boom!
West Side Story
Notes: West Side Story or Licorice Pizza. For now, Paul Thomas Anderson is the favorite despite overwhelmingly positive notes for Spielberg’s West Side Story. Only one Musical has won since 2016 (La La Land).
My Pick: Licorice Pizza
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
Compartment No. 6 (Finland, Russia, Germany)
Drive My Car (Japan)
The Hand of God (Italy)
A Hero (France, Iran)
Parallel Mothers (Spain)
Notes: Unfortunately, the slow roll-out of these films means I’ve only seen one of them so far (The Hand of God). Hopefully, in the next month or two that will change (seeing A Hero and Parallel Mothers today). Regardless, the Oscar frontrunner wins a lot here, even if it’s a smaller profile films like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car
Best Director – Motion Picture
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve, Dune
Notes: My No Guts No Glory Globes prediction is Denis Villeneuve in Director. It boils down to Globes loving innovative, large scale storytelling in this category. Dune fits the profile, and I don’t believe there’s a consensus between Campion, Spielberg and Branagh.
My Pick: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Licorice Pizza
Belfast
The Power of the Dog
Don’t Look Up
Being the Ricardos
Notes: The Globes haven’t gone for a slower art piece similar to The Power of the Dog since Her in 2014. Licorice Pizza, a Paul Thomas Anderson film, has the same appeal as the 2020 winner Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. It’s brash and laid-back. However, Jane Campion is still the frontrunner in adapted screenplay at the Oscars.
My Pick: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Notes: Surprisingly, the prestige films have had greater success in this category than the male counterparts. This makes me feel like Kristen Stewart has a chance to win, but the internalized and metaphysical performance has me second-guessing her chances. If she wins here, I’m certain she’ll win the Oscar.
My Pick: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Mahershala Ali, Swan Song
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Notes: The Globes prefer transformative performances in this category – Leo DiCaprio in The Revenant, or Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour. Roles where the person fades and the imitation presides. Will Smith, on top of having an unbelievably strong narrative, gives a transformative performance.
My Pick: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Marion Cotillard, Annette
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
Emma Stone, Cruella
Rachel Zegler, West Side Story
Notes: There’s two rules in this category at the Globes: 1, showy performances win awards and 2, don’t bet against Jennifer Lawrence (three wins in musical/comedy since 2013). However, she’s not nearly as prominent as potential Best Feature winner Alana Haim
My Personal Pick: Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up
Peter Dinklage, Cyrano
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Anthony Ramos, In the Heights
Notes: Musical leads have won four of the last five and five out of the last 10 Globes in this category. Andrew Garfield has the highest profile and biggest impact role outside of arguably Peter Dinklage. It could be the start of his Oscar run.
My Pick: Cooper Hoffman, Licorice Pizza
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
Notes: The loudest, most noticeable supporting performances get the win here. Many of these performances are internalized, while DeBose plays in a vibrant musical with her at the center in huge set pieces.
My Pick: Ruth Negga, Passing
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Notes: Troy Kotsur’s narrative is strong – strong enough to win a Golden Globe and possibly an Oscar. It feels 50/50 between Kotsur and Kodi Smit-McPhee. Belfast is strong but likely vote splitting between the two.
My pick: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Encanto
Flee
Luca
My Sunny Maad
Raya and the Last Dragon
Notes: Pixar has won six of the last 11 years and Disney has won twice. No film outside the name brand studios has a win
My pick (with the qualification of not seeing Flee yet): Luca
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
The French Dispatch
Encanto
The Power of the Dog
Parallel Mothers
Dune
Notes: Hans Zimmer has five nominations since 2010 and no wins. Many previous nominees won on their third or fourth score.
My Pick: Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
King Richard
Encanto
Belfast
Respect
No Time to Die
Notes: Since 2013, Bond films have two wins and No Time To Die might be the strongest among them. The high profile names often win in this category. My pick: No Time to Die
Weird Cinema 